Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | URI +115 PROV -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | URI -9.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -8.3 (-2.3) | 141.2 (-9.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -3.8 (+2.2) | 143.1 (-11.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -9.4 (-3.4) | 142.2 (-10.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -8.2 (-2.2) | 142.9 (-10.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | PROV 90 – 71 URI |
| Dec 3, 2023 | PROV 84 – 69 URI |
| Dec 3, 2022 | PROV 88 – 74 URI |
| Dec 4, 2021 | PROV 66 – 52 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#65) | 5.0 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#31) | 0.66 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#40) | 0.84 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#21) | 0.538 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 37.4% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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