Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA +230 TULN -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +1 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -7.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 181.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -6.0 (+7.0) | 168.4 (+8.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -6.6 (+7.6) | 166.3 (+10.7) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -6.8 (+7.8) | 166.9 (+10.1) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -6.8 (+7.8) | 167.4 (+9.6) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | TULN 85 – 52 UTSA |
| Feb 6, 2025 | TULN 61 – 60 UTSA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TULN 92 – 63 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-9 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#284) | 4.9 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#292) | 0.87 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#287) | 1.06 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#301) | 0.535 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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