Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | AF -235 STBK +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | AF -6.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -4.5 (+3.5) | 131.1 (-1.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -3.5 (+4.5) | 127.9 (+2.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -4.4 (+3.6) | 127.9 (+2.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -4.0 (+4.0) | 132.3 (-2.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 4-14 |
| Home | 3-13 | 5-9 |
| Away | 0-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#273) | -12.3 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#340) | -1.14 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#327) | -2.95 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.373 (#339) | 0.470 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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