Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | OHIO -1200 BUF +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +21 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -16.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -13.0 (+8.0) | 143.4 (+17.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -11.6 (+9.4) | 143.5 (+17.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -12.6 (+8.4) | 143.3 (+17.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -13.0 (+8.0) | 143.7 (+17.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | OHIO 95 – 83 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | OHIO 91 – 80 BUF |
| Jan 8, 2025 | OHIO 88 – 79 BUF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 15, 2023 | OHIO 85 – 61 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 2-13 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#175) | -13.2 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#228) | -3.24 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#215) | -3.76 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#246) | 0.402 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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