Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -1000 MICH +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -12.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -12.4 (+6.6) | 145.8 (-2.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -11.1 (+7.9) | 146.4 (-3.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -10.8 (+8.2) | 144.2 (-1.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -10.6 (+8.4) | 144.9 (-1.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MICH 90 – 80 MSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MICH 83 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | MSU 79 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSU 75 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MSU 73 – 63 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 14-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#17) | 6.1 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#62) | 0.32 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#43) | 0.93 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#65) | 0.538 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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