Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -150 WAKE +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -2.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -1.8 (+3.2) | 144.5 (+4.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -2.7 (+2.3) | 140.9 (+8.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -1.5 (+3.5) | 143.5 (+5.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -1.1 (+3.9) | 143.8 (+5.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | PITT 80 – 76 WAKE |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WAKE 76 – 74 PITT |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PITT 81 – 69 WAKE |
| Feb 21, 2024 | WAKE 91 – 58 PITT |
| Jan 26, 2023 | PITT 81 – 79 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 17-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#49) | 11.1 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#98) | 1.72 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#93) | 2.32 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#131) | 0.576 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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