Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -3000 UMES +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +1 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -31.2 (-30.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -15.5 (-14.5) | 136.9 (+32.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -12.5 (-11.5) | 140.5 (+28.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2023 | UMES 83 – 80 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 2-12 |
| Home | 5-8 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-10 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#39) | -7.1 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#10) | -0.31 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#12) | -0.46 (#226) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 11.4% |
| FT Rate | 42.9% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 1.4% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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