Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -1000 APSU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +25 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -11.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (-37.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -9.5 (+15.5) | 145.2 (-26.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -14.1 (+10.9) | 144.4 (-25.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -11.1 (+13.9) | 145.9 (-26.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -10.7 (+14.3) | 146.3 (-27.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#107) | -2.7 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#93) | -0.06 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#117) | -0.73 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#126) | 0.518 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 61.5% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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