Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | CIT +188 UNCG -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +15 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -1.2 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -1.8 (-13.2) | 140.2 (-3.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.9 (-12.1) | 137.9 (-0.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.2 (-12.8) | 139.3 (-2.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -1.9 (-13.1) | 140.3 (-3.3) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CIT 71 – 66 UNCG |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNCG 69 – 66 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 57 CIT |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UNCG 73 – 67 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-13 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#244) | 0.5 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#283) | 0.93 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#279) | 0.84 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#299) | 0.534 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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