Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -138 WAKE +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +2 | 96 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -0.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-33.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -2.3 (-0.3) | 122.6 (-26.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.9 (+0.1) | 128.8 (-32.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -2.1 (-0.1) | 129.5 (-33.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -1.6 (+0.4) | 124.2 (-28.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVA 75 – 70 WAKE |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UVA 83 – 75 WAKE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | WAKE 66 – 47 UVA |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UVA 76 – 67 WAKE |
| Jan 15, 2022 | WAKE 63 – 55 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 17-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#58) | 12.9 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#33) | 1.74 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#53) | 2.31 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#32) | 0.578 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.95 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.