Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -400 RAD +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +25 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -9.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -8.7 (+16.3) | 149.5 (+23.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -8.1 (+16.9) | 147.9 (+25.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -9.9 (+15.1) | 150.0 (+23.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -8.9 (+16.1) | 149.2 (+23.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HPU 86 – 77 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2026 | HPU 93 – 83 RAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | HPU 76 – 73 RAD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | HPU 78 – 75 RAD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | HPU 76 – 58 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#126) | -3.5 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#104) | -0.62 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#103) | -0.68 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#102) | 0.477 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 36.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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