Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | USU -175 SDSU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +5 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | USU -0.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -1.2 (+3.8) | 143.6 (-12.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -1.8 (+3.2) | 143.7 (-12.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -1.3 (+3.7) | 145.0 (-14.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -1.4 (+3.6) | 143.3 (-12.3) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#42) | 14.2 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#14) | 2.68 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#26) | 3.26 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#10) | 0.649 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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