Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -110 UNCA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -2.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -0.5 (+4.5) | 146.6 (+8.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -1.0 (+4.0) | 147.4 (+7.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -0.3 (+4.7) | 148.4 (+6.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -0.2 (+4.8) | 149.3 (+5.7) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 12-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#173) | 0.6 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#229) | 0.68 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#228) | 0.66 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#214) | 0.557 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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