Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -300 FUR +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -10.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.1 (-23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -11.1 (-9.1) | 158.0 (-12.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.8 (-6.8) | 157.7 (-11.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -10.7 (-8.7) | 159.8 (-13.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -11.1 (-9.1) | 157.4 (-11.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 18-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#69) | 1.5 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#40) | 0.34 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#49) | 0.33 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#37) | 0.519 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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