Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -400 COR +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COR +8 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -5.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -5.7 (-13.7) | 158.2 (+9.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -5.2 (-13.2) | 161.7 (+6.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -7.1 (-15.1) | 159.6 (+8.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -5.9 (-13.9) | 158.6 (+9.4) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | COR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#103) | 2.8 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#77) | 0.32 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#84) | 0.03 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#104) | 0.524 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | COR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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