Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | WAG +100 CCSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | CCSU -0.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -1.0 (+0.0) | 129.4 (+15.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -0.9 (-0.1) | 128.8 (+16.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -1.2 (+0.2) | 130.4 (+14.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -0.5 (-0.5) | 128.3 (+16.7) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | WAG 70 – 60 CCSU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | CCSU 84 – 67 WAG |
| Jan 30, 2026 | CCSU 62 – 55 WAG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CCSU 55 – 48 WAG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WAG 62 – 57 CCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 13-3 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-10 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#299) | -4.1 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#300) | -0.66 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#318) | -0.92 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#283) | 0.479 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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