Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -600 SUU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -7.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -7.2 (-2.2) | 150.2 (+24.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -5.9 (-0.9) | 152.8 (+22.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -6.1 (-1.1) | 153.0 (+22.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -6.8 (-1.8) | 151.2 (+23.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTA 69 – 63 SUU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SUU 78 – 73 UTA |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTA 80 – 61 SUU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UTA 86 – 77 SUU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UTA 70 – 68 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#157) | -3.7 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#176) | -1.06 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#158) | -0.91 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#174) | 0.438 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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