Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -210 UTM +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +10 | 196 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -8.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+54.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -4.9 (+5.1) | 140.7 (+55.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -5.7 (+4.3) | 139.5 (+56.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -6.0 (+4.0) | 140.1 (+55.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -6.2 (+3.8) | 145.2 (+50.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | UTM 74 – 64 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#243) | -7.7 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#234) | -1.91 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#251) | -3.46 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#202) | 0.413 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 23.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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