Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ND -2000 DART +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +12 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | ND -19.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -15.4 (-3.4) | 142.4 (-0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -16.0 (-4.0) | 144.1 (-2.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -16.1 (-4.1) | 143.3 (-1.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -15.0 (-3.0) | 140.6 (+1.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#85) | -8.8 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#157) | -0.78 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#117) | -1.44 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#117) | 0.455 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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