Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -250 TXST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +9 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -5.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -4.2 (-13.2) | 136.6 (-9.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -2.4 (-11.4) | 138.9 (-11.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -4.5 (-13.5) | 139.7 (-12.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -4.1 (-13.1) | 136.7 (-9.7) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | TXST 94 – 80 GAST |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TXST 81 – 76 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#200) | -4.4 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#230) | -0.73 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#227) | -0.72 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#192) | 0.480 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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