Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -200 STMN +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -3.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -3.1 (+1.9) | 141.4 (+7.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -2.8 (+2.2) | 139.2 (+9.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -2.5 (+2.5) | 140.8 (+8.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -2.8 (+2.2) | 143.2 (+5.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | STMN 80 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 5, 2026 | STMN 77 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STMN 74 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDST 102 – 86 STMN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | STMN 73 – 72 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#159) | 0.4 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#199) | -0.36 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#185) | -0.15 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#180) | 0.478 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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