Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -400 UMES +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +33 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -12.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -9.4 (+23.6) | 136.5 (+6.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -8.7 (+24.3) | 137.9 (+5.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -10.2 (+22.8) | 138.2 (+4.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -9.4 (+23.6) | 137.8 (+5.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | NCCU 83 – 76 UMES |
| Mar 3, 2026 | NCCU 77 – 73 UMES |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NCCU 65 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UMES 68 – 59 NCCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NCCU 88 – 69 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 4-10 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#269) | -14.1 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#271) | -2.43 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#277) | -2.95 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#285) | 0.375 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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