Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -250 CBU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +17 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -5.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -6.5 (+10.5) | 135.7 (+11.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -5.3 (+11.7) | 132.7 (+14.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -6.1 (+10.9) | 135.4 (+11.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -6.5 (+10.5) | 135.7 (+11.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | CBU 82 – 67 TAR |
| Feb 6, 2026 | CBU 56 – 55 TAR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TAR 81 – 76 CBU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CBU 55 – 51 TAR |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CBU 68 – 48 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-7 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#148) | -1.2 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#87) | -0.36 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#99) | -0.36 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#81) | 0.474 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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