Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +155 GTWN -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +1 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | GTWN -4.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -3.5 (+2.5) | 148.7 (+4.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -4.4 (+3.4) | 146.6 (+6.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -3.9 (+2.9) | 149.0 (+4.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -3.6 (+2.6) | 151.1 (+1.9) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | GTWN 63 – 56 DEP |
| Jan 29, 2026 | GTWN 70 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DEP 56 – 50 GTWN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | DEP 71 – 67 GTWN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DEP 83 – 77 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 2-18 |
| Home | 3-15 | 7-12 |
| Away | 0-11 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L20 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#310) | -1.1 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#320) | -0.67 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#311) | -0.45 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#305) | 0.444 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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