Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -800 XAV +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -9.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -10.3 (+13.7) | 151.5 (+0.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -9.8 (+14.2) | 153.2 (-1.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -10.0 (+14.0) | 152.2 (-0.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -9.5 (+14.5) | 152.2 (-0.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#15) | 10.0 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#8) | 1.09 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#10) | 1.82 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#12) | 0.543 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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