Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -2500 BCU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +18 | 100 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -12.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -10.3 (+7.7) | 126.8 (-26.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -13.2 (+4.8) | 128.2 (-28.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -10.4 (+7.6) | 128.4 (-28.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -11.3 (+6.7) | 128.0 (-28.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 8-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#127) | -6.2 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#104) | -1.23 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#91) | -1.60 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#86) | 0.435 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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