Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -350 WIN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +4 | 196 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -6.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+37.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -6.7 (-2.7) | 154.6 (+41.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -5.8 (-1.8) | 155.7 (+40.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -7.0 (-3.0) | 156.3 (+39.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -6.5 (-2.5) | 155.7 (+40.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#117) | 0.4 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#99) | -0.10 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#100) | -0.09 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#94) | 0.502 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 35.0% | 35.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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