Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -8000 VMI +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +42 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -21.2 (+20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -16.6 (+25.4) | 146.5 (+11.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -17.7 (+24.3) | 147.2 (+10.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -18.8 (+23.2) | 145.9 (+12.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -19.1 (+22.9) | 145.5 (+12.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNCG 84 – 70 VMI |
| Feb 12, 2026 | UNCG 92 – 71 VMI |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 78 VMI |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VMI 64 – 57 UNCG |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCG 80 – 54 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 1-17 |
| Home | 11-3 | 4-10 |
| Away | 7-7 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 84.9 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#149) | -16.7 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#103) | -3.43 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#120) | -3.91 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#106) | 0.372 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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