Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -340 UND +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -9.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -6.4 (-2.4) | 147.5 (+8.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -5.4 (-1.4) | 148.0 (+8.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -6.0 (-2.0) | 149.3 (+6.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -6.6 (-2.6) | 149.2 (+6.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | UTSA 95 – 85 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#232) | -8.4 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#217) | -0.95 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#240) | -1.59 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#196) | 0.396 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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