Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -1200 ASU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +49 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -13.4 (+35.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -11.0 (+38.0) | 144.8 (-11.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -10.2 (+38.8) | 143.1 (-10.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -9.9 (+39.1) | 143.4 (-10.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -10.7 (+38.3) | 144.0 (-11.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ISU 86 – 65 ASU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ISU 76 – 61 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 22.4 (#7) | 9.0 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#12) | 1.96 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.26 (#13) | 2.45 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#20) | 0.559 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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