Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -275 NAU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +4 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -8.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+41.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -5.9 (-9.9) | 138.0 (+42.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -6.1 (-10.1) | 138.2 (+41.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -5.5 (-9.5) | 139.2 (+40.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -6.0 (-10.0) | 140.2 (+39.8) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-13 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#250) | -9.3 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#266) | -0.55 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#251) | -0.99 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#297) | 0.475 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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