Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | GAST -163 MRSH +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +3 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -5.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -4.5 (-1.5) | 144.3 (+16.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -2.3 (+0.7) | 146.9 (+14.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -4.6 (-1.6) | 147.6 (+13.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -4.3 (-1.3) | 144.1 (+16.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | GAST 81 – 73 MRSH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | MRSH 84 – 80 GAST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRSH 79 – 76 GAST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | GAST 85 – 81 MRSH |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MRSH 92 – 79 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#204) | -4.6 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#245) | -0.82 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#239) | -0.87 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#229) | 0.469 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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