Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -340 ASU +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -5.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -5.1 (+11.9) | 148.7 (+0.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -6.6 (+10.4) | 148.6 (+0.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -6.2 (+10.8) | 149.2 (-0.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -4.9 (+12.1) | 147.8 (+1.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W12 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#16) | 11.5 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.33 (#1) | 3.40 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.31 (#1) | 4.58 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#12) | 0.679 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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