Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | OU +210 HOU -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +2 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -7.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+43.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -5.5 (+3.5) | 131.7 (+40.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -5.5 (+3.5) | 131.5 (+40.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -4.6 (+2.6) | 133.6 (+38.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -4.9 (+2.9) | 134.6 (+37.4) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 32-5 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 17-0 |
| Away | 3-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 57.6 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#32) | 23.4 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#44) | 3.64 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#36) | 4.47 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#67) | 0.657 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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