Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -130 TA&M +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -1.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -2.1 (-6.1) | 138.7 (-2.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -0.7 (-4.7) | 137.6 (-1.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.6 (-5.6) | 138.3 (-2.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -1.4 (-5.4) | 139.6 (-3.6) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#31) | 12.5 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#18) | 2.51 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.20 (#18) | 3.54 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.689 (#7) | 0.654 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 43.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 17.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 43.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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