Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -154 GONZ +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +13 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -3.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -2.2 (-15.2) | 141.9 (-14.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.0 (-17.0) | 139.1 (-12.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -2.9 (-15.9) | 140.7 (-13.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -2.4 (-15.4) | 143.9 (-16.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 14-2 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 9-0 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#20) | 15.2 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#36) | 2.15 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#43) | 2.87 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#29) | 0.592 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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