Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | WASH -188 USC +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +7 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | WASH -7.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -6.6 (-13.6) | 157.5 (-0.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -6.1 (-13.1) | 159.5 (-2.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -6.6 (-13.6) | 158.8 (-1.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -6.6 (-13.6) | 157.9 (-0.9) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | WASH 83 – 79 USC |
| Mar 5, 2026 | WASH 91 – 72 USC |
| Dec 6, 2025 | WASH 84 – 76 USC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USC 92 – 61 WASH |
| Dec 7, 2024 | USC 85 – 61 WASH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#54) | 5.8 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#89) | 0.39 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#86) | 0.66 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#76) | 0.512 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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