Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -450 MCN +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -10.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -8.7 (-5.7) | 142.8 (-13.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -8.7 (-5.7) | 139.9 (-10.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -8.6 (-5.6) | 142.2 (-13.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -8.3 (-5.3) | 144.4 (-15.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 19-1 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 64.5 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#19) | 5.3 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#32) | 0.36 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#24) | 0.80 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#40) | 0.565 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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