Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | WRST -300 NKU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WRST +6 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | WRST -6.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WRST -5.1 (+0.9) | 156.2 (+25.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WRST -3.8 (+2.2) | 158.7 (+23.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -4.8 (+1.2) | 158.1 (+23.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -4.5 (+1.5) | 159.0 (+23.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | WRST 103 – 90 NKU |
| Mar 1, 2026 | WRST 92 – 91 NKU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WRST 88 – 80 NKU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NKU 80 – 76 WRST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WRST 78 – 70 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#146) | -1.7 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#179) | -0.17 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#163) | -0.23 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#149) | 0.510 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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