Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -36.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +48 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -38.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -25.0 (+23.0) | 145.4 (+4.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -26.2 (+21.8) | 144.7 (+5.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -33.9 (+14.1) | 142.6 (+7.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -34.3 (+13.7) | 145.7 (+4.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 4-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 61.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#17) | -18.0 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#49) | -3.88 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#51) | -5.40 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#42) | 0.364 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 24.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 39.5% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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