Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UTU +100 ACU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +7 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | UTU -0.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -0.2 (-7.2) | 145.8 (+19.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -0.4 (-6.6) | 148.7 (+16.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -0.7 (-6.3) | 147.2 (+17.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -0.2 (-6.8) | 146.8 (+18.2) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTU 80 – 74 ACU |
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTU 85 – 81 ACU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTU 76 – 70 ACU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UTU 79 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ACU 80 – 72 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#282) | -3.6 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#269) | -0.29 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#260) | -0.34 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#281) | 0.471 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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