Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | CAN +280 ME -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | ME -10.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -7.9 (+2.9) | 137.7 (+25.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -8.8 (+3.8) | 137.3 (+25.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -8.8 (+3.8) | 137.2 (+25.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -8.6 (+3.6) | 136.4 (+26.6) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | CAN 70 – 43 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-6 |
| Home | 1-12 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -16.1 (#357) | -1.1 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.59 (#360) | -0.09 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.95 (#360) | -0.40 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.355 (#353) | 0.499 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 28.1 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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