Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | BU -175 NAVY +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | BU -5.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -5.3 (+3.7) | 131.9 (-0.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -3.4 (+5.6) | 133.3 (-2.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -4.4 (+4.6) | 133.3 (-2.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -4.7 (+4.3) | 132.2 (-1.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | BU 73 – 72 NAVY |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NAVY 82 – 77 BU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NAVY 86 – 78 BU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BU 87 – 65 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#285) | -8.6 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#302) | -2.03 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#299) | -2.46 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#276) | 0.411 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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