Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -188 CAL +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +22 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -4.3 (+17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -3.6 (+18.4) | 151.4 (-13.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -4.6 (+17.4) | 151.3 (-13.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -3.1 (+18.9) | 154.5 (-16.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -3.3 (+18.7) | 152.7 (-14.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#105) | 3.6 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#138) | 0.45 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#127) | 0.88 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#194) | 0.495 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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