Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | XAV +145 MARQ -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +6 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -3.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -2.3 (-3.7) | 153.4 (+12.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -0.7 (-5.3) | 153.4 (+12.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -1.8 (-4.2) | 153.8 (+12.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -1.3 (-4.7) | 154.5 (+11.5) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#55) | 16.7 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#91) | 2.61 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#68) | 3.17 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#100) | 0.610 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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