Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -175 GWEB +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +11 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -2.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -3.0 (+8.0) | 145.1 (+9.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -2.3 (+8.7) | 143.7 (+11.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -2.7 (+8.3) | 142.3 (+12.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -3.2 (+7.8) | 142.8 (+12.2) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCA 77 – 71 GWEB |
| Jan 29, 2026 | UNCA 69 – 50 GWEB |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNCA 78 – 70 GWEB |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UNCA 61 – 53 GWEB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GWEB 78 – 77 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 11-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#161) | -2.1 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#129) | -0.01 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#134) | -0.36 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#90) | 0.533 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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