Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | LT -1000 MTSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +14 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | LT -16.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -12.6 (+1.4) | 136.4 (+17.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -12.0 (+2.0) | 136.1 (+17.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -13.6 (+0.4) | 134.9 (+19.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -12.9 (+1.1) | 136.8 (+17.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | LT 80 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | LT 59 – 58 MTSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MTSU 88 – 51 LT |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 LT |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LT 85 – 74 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#94) | -6.7 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#106) | -0.66 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#97) | -0.76 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#59) | 0.458 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.