Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -120 GRAM +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +3 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -2.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+44.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -0.8 (+2.2) | 128.4 (+42.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -0.4 (+2.6) | 132.9 (+38.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -1.4 (+1.6) | 132.0 (+39.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -1.0 (+2.0) | 129.8 (+41.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GRAM 65 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GRAM 57 – 47 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ALST 64 – 62 GRAM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALST 59 – 47 GRAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GRAM 77 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#312) | -8.4 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#312) | -0.37 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#315) | -0.65 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#273) | 0.511 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.9% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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