Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -175 FUR +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +7 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -5.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -5.9 (+1.1) | 156.6 (+4.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -4.4 (+2.6) | 157.2 (+3.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.2 (+1.8) | 157.9 (+3.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -5.8 (+1.2) | 156.9 (+4.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 18-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#79) | 1.4 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#49) | 0.14 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#66) | 0.12 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#34) | 0.504 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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