Betting Lines
| Spread | SCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SCU -165 BRAD +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCU +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -3.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -2.2 (+12.2) | 143.8 (+14.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -1.6 (+11.6) | 142.0 (+16.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -0.4 (+10.4) | 142.6 (+15.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -1.2 (+11.2) | 143.4 (+14.6) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#88) | 8.6 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#114) | 2.59 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#108) | 3.27 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#79) | 0.605 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 46.4% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 61.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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